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There is always uncertainty surrounding professional football teams during this part of the off-season and the Washington Redskins are no different. But one thing is a given: whatever the situation, there will be as many different opinions about it in this city as there are blades of grass on the White House lawn.
One of the prevailing opinions is that if Redskins’ head coach Mike Shanahan’s doesn’t lead his team to at least a .500 record this upcoming season, he will be gone before the following season arrives. Shanahan believes he will be here for a while. But there are those who feel Redskins’ owner Dan Snyder won’t stand for another losing season.
If one were to illustrate this thinking by an algebraic equation, and the variables were that “a” is the Redskins season record and “b” is an NFL owner, it would look something like this:
If a = <8 Wins and b = Dan Snyder, then a + b = Redskins – Shanahan
Before Mike Shanahan arrived, this equation would have held true. Dan Snyder was an impatient owner. For many years he regularly fired coaches that didn’t win. Think Norv Turner, Terry Robiskie, Marty Schottenheimer and Jim Zorn.
But Shanahan is a different story and Snyder trusts in the idea that building this team to win year-in and year-out will take time. By his actions – or lack thereof – the owner has indicated that he has finally learned something about consistency and stability. The year is 2012 and things have changed out at Redskins Park. Since Shanahan and general manager Bruce Allen’s arrival, Snyder has behaved in ways RedskinsNation would have never believed possible. According to Shanahan, Snyder has done everything the coach has asked of him. By all accounts, the owner has stayed out of the personnel office and has not orchestrated any huge free agent signings. Any changes have been facilitated by Shanahan or Allen. Dan Snyder has evolved into an owner that understands that football people – not business people – need to run football organizations. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out he is happy to give the responsibility of running the team to someone else. Firing Shanahan if the team has a less than .500 season in 2012 would smack of an owner not learning a thing from the past but Snyder appears to have changed his ways.
Shoot… Snyder even built the coach his practice bubble.
The post-2010 equation would have an additional variable so that “a” is the Redskins season record, “b” is an owner (who has learned from his mistakes) and “c” is offensive production. It would look something like this:
If a = <8 Wins and b = Dan Snyder and c = average of 20+ points per game, then (a + b) + c = Redskins + Shanahan
Snyder will refrain from firing Mike Shanahan even if the Redskins lose more games than they win this coming season… unless “c” is not part of the equation. The offense needs to score points and the defense must consistently stop their opponents.
This is true because of the various scenarios that could take place in 2012.
The Redskins could make a bid for Indianapolis Colts’ quarterback Peyton Manning if he is released – although I sincerely hope they don’t. Current Green Bay Packers’ back-up quarterback Matt Flynn and Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback Kyle Orton will both be free agents this year and either could be in Shanahan’s plans as well.
The dream scenario for Washington would be to acquire exciting Baylor product Robert Griffin, III but, without giving up huge amounts of current or future draft picks, that’s probably not going to happen. I waffle on whether or not it is a good idea to give up so much for him. The Redskins have gone so long without a franchise quarterback, that I’m tempted to mimic Nike (“Just DO it!”) regardless of the cost. But, in the future, when lamenting the fact that Shanahan did not have enough draft picks to get players like Kelechi Osemele (offensive tackle/guard out of Iowa State) or Alfonzo Dennard, (cornerback from Nebraska), I’ll wonder if it was worth it.
Whatever happens at quarterback, if Snyder sees progress in 2012 – regardless of the team’s record, I just don’t see him firing Shanahan.
I am of the less popular opinion that the Redskins’ wide receivers have talent. With the running backs the team has and guys like Terrence Austin, Santana Moss and 6’2” Leonard Hankerson catching balls; and with a smart, ball-protecting quarterback throwing to them, Washington has enough offensive talent to be competitive – given a defense that remains at least as good as it was in 2011.
Envision this: Orton is the Redskins’ quarterback who is being protected and is protecting the ball. He is recognizing defenses. A rookie QB is standing on the sidelines holding the clipboard and learning the system. The wide outs are catching balls and running backs are moving the chains successfully. The defense is continuing to gel and there is depth in the secondary through the draft and/or free agency.
Now, let’s say the starter gets hurt half-way through the season and goes on IR, or lets one-too-many big plays go by without taking a shot. He loses his job. The rookie quarterback receives baptism-by-fire and improves as the season goes on. Offensive production continues. But the rookie is still a rookie making rookie mistakes. The team ends the season with a 7-9, maybe 8-8 record.
What is Snyder’s thought process here? Does he see and care about the improvement or just the record?
If he is really watching, he’s going to see the well-chosen rookie quarterback – and all of the youngsters on the team – continuing to get better with a few healthy veterans leading the charge. The 2010 and 2011 draft classes of Roy Helu, Evan Royster, Ryan Kerrigan, DeJon Gomes, Riley Perry and Jarvis Jenkins have been “raised” by Shanahan’s coaching staff and should be coming into their own in 2012.
Snyder is not going to fire Shanahan because he sees the potential that Shanahan has brought to his team.
The only way that I see Shanahan gone after the 2012 season is if he does nothing about the quarterback position. Keeping Rex Grossman and John Beck as his two quarterbacks would be akin to professional suicide. The most likely formula for 2012 then, where ”a” is the Redskins season record, “b” is an owner, “c” is team potential and “d” is the season’s outcome; would look something like this:
If a = <8W and b = Dan Snyder and c = 20+ points average per game, then, (a + b) + c = d where d = Redskins and Shanahan – and consistent winning
Hail.
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