Examining How Welker, Amendola Deals Affect Giants/Cruz

The Denver Broncos added former New England Patriots’ receiver Wes Welker and the Pats responded by signing the younger-but-similar Danny Amendola to fill the void. In doing so, both teams likely set the table for ongoing discussions between the New York Giants and Pro Bowl receiver, Victor Cruz, on a new deal.

Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Welker’s deal is worth $6 million a year and Amendola’s averages out to be about $6.1 million. Currently expected to make $2.9 million in 2013, Cruz is going to be asking for a substantial raise if the Giants wish to re-sign him to a long-term deal.

Welker is 32 years of age, past the prime of his career, and has struggled with drops in recent years. Meanwhile, Amendola’s production is nowhere near that of Cruz’s over the past two seasons and he has an alarming injury history.

At the ripe age of 26, Cruz has a ton of upside and the potential to be one of the NFL’s best slot receivers for years to come. He has posted two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and is quarterback Eli Manning’s most popular red-zone target (19 touchdowns). He is a fan favorite and a beloved hometown figure with roots in nearby Paterson. On the field and off, Cruz is the ideal player for the Giants to have on their roster.

But as the fresh, new deals of Welker and Amendola indicate, the three-year veteran is going to come at a fairly high cost. The two AFC players are the most comparable wide outs on the market to Cruz, providing a good comparison to gauge the type of money the star receiver may be looking for. Hoping for a hometown discount is fun, but when it comes down to it, the NFL is a business — Cruz wants the big bucks.

And by big bucks we’re talking about a range of $8-10 million.

Cruz is younger, faster, healthier and better than either player in the country’s biggest sports market. He has proven to be a lethal weapon with the ability to turn any play into a touchdown. He’s still improving and should continue to do so… especially in the Giants’ offense with Manning and fellow star receiver Hakeem Nicks.

It was rumored earlier in the offseason that the Giants prioritized getting a long-term extension done with Nicks over re-signing Cruz. If that’s true, they may not budge on giving Cruz the long-term contract he demands. That would be a risk. Another team could potentially take the restricted free agent — if they’re willing to part with a first-round draft pick and outbid the G-Men. But New York could also benefit financially if Cruz has a down year in 2013.

Is a slot receiver (generally a quarterback’s second option) worth such a big payday? In today’s NFL — where the more passing targets there are, the better — it could be. Welker and Amendola may set the market for slot receivers, but Cruz wants to be paid based on production and production indicates that he’s a No. 1 receiver. He has led the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns in each of the past two seasons.

If the Giants do wish to keep Cruz by any means necessary, they will have to suck it up and accept the inevitability that it’s going to cost them a large sum of money to do so. Already in cap hell, general manager Jerry Reese will have to find a way to make it work while still being able to field a competitive football team. But a deal is going to take time — if it comes at all. At least now the Giants and Cruz have a good idea of the kind of money it will take to keep him in New York.

 

Louis Musto is a writer for the Sports Journey Broadcast Network. You can follow him on Twitter @LouisMusto.