Fantasy Football: Should you draft Josh Doctson?

With the 22nd pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Washington Redskins selected TCU’s Josh Doctson. Unfortunately for the young wide receiver, he began his career in Washington with a lot of competition already on the team. Veteran wide outs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon are all above Doctson on the depth chart and second-year receiver Jamison Crowder will be Doctson’s biggest competition for playing time.

The rookie has roster numbers working against him but one skill set separates him from the pack. “Tremendous leaping ability” was the first strength listed on Doctson’s scouting report by Pro Football Focus. Jackson tracks the ball in the air extremely well but Doctson is already the best receiver on the roster when it comes to jump balls and it is here where Doctson could have an impact for your fantasy team. He won’t put up big yards but could have seven or eight touchdowns simply by catching fades in the end zone. This is an area where Doctson really shined at TCU in 2015. In fact, half of his 14 touchdowns came inside the red zone last season.

Pair this red zone ability with Washington QB Kirk Cousins‘ proficiency in the red zone and Doctson is set up for some serious success.

Cousins didn’t throw an interception inside the 20-yard line and had a passer rating of 112.4 in his breakout campaign of 2015. Tight end Jordan Reed had a lot to do with those numbers. His combination of excellent footwork, route running, speed and size make him a matchup nightmare inside the red zone. This is evidenced by Reed’s 10 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. Reed finally proved he can stay healthy for an entire season as well and he had the type of season Redskins fans have been expecting for a long time. While the NFL has taken note of Reed’s abilities, Doctson is still an unproven commodity and will likely have one-on-one matchups often while defenses figure him out.

Don’t expect Doctson to have 800 receiving yards in his first season. Injuries to either Jackson or Garçon are the only way this would happen. But he is going to be a major red zone threat for the Redskins. Doctson should not be drafted early in most leagues but he is a solid bench option based on his upside. After all, he is one injury away from having a big role in the offense.

Doctson’s fantasy value could increase if the Redskins’ running game doesn’t improve. Second-year running back Matt Jones had some nice moments as a rookie but averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and had some trouble holding on to the ball. Veteran Alfred Morris — now with the Dallas Cowboys — also averaged less than four yards per carry and finished the season with just 751 rushing yards. If the running game doesn’t improve, the Redskins will have to rely on the passing game much like they did in 2015. Jackson and Garçon can’t play every snap and Doctson would be the obvious choice to play on the outside in their place.

If you want Doctson on your team, I’d suggest drafting an elite pass-catcher early in your draft. Guys like Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers), Dez Bryant (Cowboys), A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals), Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons) or Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) could offset a disappointing performance from Doctson if you start him based on upside alone and he doesn’t quite play up to the billing.