The National Football League’s Elite 8 will take center stage in the 2011 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round. Probably the most anticipated match-up will be the Denver Broncos (Tebows) vs. New England Patriots on Saturday Night as two of the NFL’s most popular quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Tim Tebow, square-off with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line
(Philadelphia,Pa) — The “Elite Eight” round better known as the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round start the “real” games as far as I am concerned. Most fans and media love the hype of the National Football League’s Conference Championships and Super Bowl. But you can put my wholehearted vote in for the NFL Divisional Playoffs as the most exciting portion of the league’s now year-round calendar. The splendor of the divisional playoff round is that the four best teams from the regular season, after a well-deserved bye week, finally get to enter the fracas to take on pumped-up Wildcard Round upstarts. The NFL Playoffs’ Wildcard round usually does a pretty good job of removing some of the teams that I like to call “Frauds” from the playoff picture. However if some frauds are still leftover, surely the divisional round will sniff them out. The final eight usually brings out the best in teams leading to highly competitive games before the suffocating hype, pressure, and “big stage” mentality of getting to the Super Bowl sets in.The great thing about divisional round games are that now teams that excelled in the regular season have to “Prove It” when it matters most. Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin – team lost toDenverin Wildcard Round — recently said of the challenge of the playoffs, “We turn the page now, we move forward into the single-elimination tournament. That’s what this journey is about. We want to finish strong and then move onto the new challenges.” For a long time teams coming off byes seemed to automatically advance to the Conference Championship round of the playoffs. Since the league went to 12 playoff teams in 1990, — gave the top two seeds in each conference first-round byes — the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are 60-22 (.732) in their first playoff game. However since 2005, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are just 10-12 (.454) in the divisional playoff round. A great example of the non-predictability of current divisional round playoffs was in last season.
Both No. 1 seeds (New England Patriots –AFC and Atlanta Falcons – NFC) came off byes and lost in the divisional playoffs. After the dust had settled for Super Bowl XLV inDallas, the AFC’s No. 2 seeded Steelers and the NFC’s No. 6 seeded Green Bay Packers were left. Remember there are no longer the dynasty bully teams of the past — think of Paul Brown’s Cleveland Browns of the ‘50s, Vince Lombardi’s Green Bay Packers of the ‘60s, Chuck Knoll’s Pittsburgh Steelers of the ‘70s, Bill Walsh’s San Francisco 49ers of the ‘80s, Jerry Jones’ Dallas Cowboys of the ‘90s, and Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots of the ‘00s – with “Parity” still the driving factor in the NFL. To show the parity around the NFL in the regulars season there were 12 teams with winning records, 12 teams with losing records, and 8 teams stuck right in the middle (.500) at 8-8. So all 8 teams have a legitimate chance, matter what all the talking heads around the league are saying.
To no one’s surprise, after all four home teams won in the Wildcard Round – first time since 2006 – Vegas is favoring the hosts. However the hosts definitely should proceed with some trepidation as road teams have won at least 1 division round game in the past 6 NFL playoffs and there have been at least two road winners in 5 of the last 6 years. So nothing is guaranteed, even if fans are hoping for a Super Match-up of the two No. 1 seeds, Green Bay Packers (15-1) and New England Patriots (13-3). Yes, in recent history the 2009 NFL Season’s Super Bowl match-up of the Saints-Colts brought the league’s first No. 1 seed showdown since 1993 (Buffalo vs.Dallasin Super Bowl XXVIII) but I am not sure if the “Chalk” will fall into place again this season. Since 1990 only 20 of the 42 (32 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl, with nine No. 1 seeds being crowned champions (22.5 percent). However some good news for No. 1 seeds is that they are a combined 30-12 in the divisional playoffs since 1990 (NFC: 18-3 andAFC: 12-9)
The 2011NFL Regular Season was topsy-turvy – 125 of 256 games (48.8 percent) were decided by seven points or fewer, the second-most such games in a season in NFL history(126 games in 2002) — and I fully expect the divisional round to be a wide-open affair too. Somewhere former NFL Commissioner Bert Bell is smiling as the phrase he coined, “On Any Given Sunday” still is reigning true. Bell’s dream theory of equitability where any team, whether top or bottom, could beat each other on a weekly basis, was majorly driven home last week in the Wildcard round.
Everyone, including yours truly, gave the Denver Broncos – regular season record of 8-8, including 3 consecutive losses — little chance to beat the defendingAFCChampion Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wildcard Round. But in the parity-filled world of the current NFL, the Broncos, who were a 9-point home underdog, rallied around their leader QB Tim Tebow to defeat the Steelers 29-23 in a thrilling walk-off overtime 80-yard catch-and-run touchdown by emerging WR DeMaryius Thomas. The Broncos will try to keep “Tebow Mania” going while trying to also become the NFL’s first regular-season.500 or worse team to win two playoff games when they travel toNew England.
Definitely keep an eye on the winners from the Wild Card round as 5 of the last 6 recent Super Bowl Champions (Steelers ‘05, Colts ‘06, Giants ‘07, Steelers ‘08, and Packers ‘10) won on Wildcard weekend. Hopefully Belichick, Brady, and the rest of the Patriots were paying attention, as should every other favored team coming off of a bye. Preparation and execution will be the keys to beating the opponent in front of them. The other alternative from non-preparation will be joining the Eagles, Bucs, Chiefs, Colts and the 20 other non-playoff teams on the sidelines. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick recently said of the playoffs, “After the regular season the Patriots were 13-3, but now the team is 0-0”.
The theme of the 2011NFL Divisional Playoff round should be the same as one of my favorite ’70s films, “Let’s Do It Again”. The film starred African-American film icons Bill Cosby and Sidney Poitiere making a killing by prearranging boxing matches with all the marbles riding on a big payday rematch. The word “rematch” fits perfectly as all four divisional playoff games will be rematches – alright I know it is really 3 of 4 from the regular season. But the Niners and Saints did play each other way back in Week 1 of the Preseason –New Orleanswon 24-3 as backup players like QB Chase Daniel and WR/PR Joe Morgan (who??) led the way.
The Texans and Ravens last met in Week 6 when both teams had their full compliment of players, includingHoustonstarting QB Matt Schaub. However the Ravens were able to out-physical the Texans on their way to a 29-14 victory. In one of the best games of the 2011 NFL Regular Season, the Giants showed a lot of fight in a Week 13 home loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers. In that game, it took a great game-saving field drive led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers to lead the Packers to a comeback 38-35 win and preserve their perfection then at a record of 12-0.
Probably the most anticipated rematch of the divisional round will involve the Broncos and Patriots. It will be interested to see if young quarterback Tim Tebow and the Broncos learned something from their Week 15 loss toNew England. In that game, the Broncos jumped out to an early 16-7 lead while also outgaining the Patriots 167 to 4 in the first quarter before Tom Brady and Company woke-up to finish with a 41-23 butt-kicking. Of the original and the upcoming rematch Tebow said, “I feel like it was a good learning experience. I think it’s a privilege for us to play again.”
Of course having played and beaten a team in the regular season may bring a partial psychological edge in game planning, and dissecting tendencies. But tried-and-true playoff tenants of Strong Quarterback Play (i.e. Taking Care of the Football), Good Attacking Defense, a Balanced Offensive Attack based first in the Run, Sound Special Teams Play, Getting off the Field on 3rd Downs Defensively, Scoring Touchdowns rather field goals in the Redzone, Limiting Penalties/Turnovers, and just plain “Want-to” will be the deciding factors as to which teams move on to the Conference Championship round on the long treacherous road to Super Bowl XLVI in Indy.
Other than the playoff tenants that we discussed earlier, “Great” playoff teams that usually advance far in the postseason win the battle in Adjustments and Turnovers. The NFL is a copycat league where teams can catch-up quickly and adjustments are the only way to stay ahead of the pack and combat falling behind. With the Wildcard Round behind us, it is time for the “great” coaches to make the adjustments necessary to get their teams to the next round of the playoffs – think Saints head coach Sean Payton calling a surprise successful onside kick after halftime of Super Bowl XLIV. However we all know that nothing goes as “planned” in the NFL. It is all well and good to look at old tape and previous games against your opponent to prepare a dossier. But during the course of a game, plans can quickly go out the window.
Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson used to always say before a fight in his classic lisp voice, “Everybody has a plan, until they get hit.” That quote is so very true in the NFL too as former Super Bowl winning coaches in this year’s playoffs (Bill Belichick, Mike McCarthy, and Payton) have been known to make in-game adjustments to their original game plans that have led to playoff victories. As important as adjustments are, plain and simple nothing is an important factor in wining playoff games than “turnovers”. Nothing can put a dagger in a team’s playoff hopes quicker than giving away the ball, especially turnovers that go to the house for points.
A prime example was in last week’s Wildcard Round where the Cincinnati Bengals turned the ball over 3 times, including JJ Watts’ game-changing 29-yard Pick-6 touchdown — in their lopsided loss to the Houston Texans – BTW Houston didn’t have any turnovers or allow a single sack on offense. And of course who could ever forget the worst turnover game in recent memory, where the highly favored Carolina Panthers lost at home 33-13 in a whitewash to the underdog Arizona Cardinals in the 2008 NFL Playoffs Divisional round. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme (17-34, 205 yards, 1 TD, 5INTand 1 fumble) accounted for six turnovers by himself and the Cardinals scored 23 of their 33 points off of those takeaways.
I usually also like to look at the hottest teams going into playoff games as favorites and no team is hotter than the New Orleans Saints (9 straight wins including their Wildcard win over the Lions). Other teams currently on a roll are Patriots (7), NY Giants (3), Niners (3), Ravens (2), Packers (2), Texans (1), and Broncos (1). So everyone is a winner entering the NFL’s Elite 8, but all that is sure to change real soon. Speaking of this year’s No. 1’s, the Packers and Patriots, both had very strong regular seasons including Green Bay’s near-brush with perfection, but now none of that not matters.
The Packers surely will have their hands full with the NY Giants, who are coming off an impressive 24-2 dominating physical win over the Atlanta Falcons. The Packers will have to show that they are back in playoff form after trying for perfection and surprisingly losing to the “lowly” Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15. The G-Men are one the NFL’s most exciting teams at this time and their quarterback, Eli Manning, is playing the best football of his career while easily being mistaken for his more famous brother, Peyton. And we already discussed the challenges ahead of the Patriots in facing the upstart Broncos. New Englandhas not won a playoff game sinceJanuary 20, 2008when they defeated the San Diego Chargers (21-12) to reach Super Bowl XLII — lost in their first game the last two seasons.
The operative phrase for all the teams remaining in the single-elimination NFL Playoffs is “Moving On”. Because winning the battle on the stat sheet means nothing as getting “W’s” are all that matter. Style points are out the window as an “ugly” win is just as good as an offensive highlight reel win – Just ask the Super Bowl XL Champion Pittsburgh Steelers who won ugly throughout most of their playoff run. So nothing is a given once two teams step between the lines as shown byAFCNo. 1 seeds’ divisional round playoff records since 1990. Stats show that these “regular season champs” are only a little above 50-50 with a record of 12-9 (.571) in the Divisional round. Smartly, New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton recently said of playoff preparations, “We just focus on winning.”
Sadly the 2011 season will soon be over, so definitely enjoy this weekend’s slate of four quality matchups.
Some Lloyd’s Leftovers from the divisional round include:
• You just might need a 1st round quarterback – We all know that you need a quarterback with pedigree in the playoffs. And amazingly 5 of the 8 quarterbacks starting in the Divisional Round are former first-round selections by their respective teams including two No. 1 overall picks. NY Giants Eli Manning (1st overall selection in 2001); Niners Alex Smith (1st overall selection in 2005); Ravens Joe Flacco (18th overall selection in 2008); Denver Broncos Tim Tebow (25th overall selection in 2010); and Packers Aaron Rodgers (24th overall selection in 2005). The total was almost six, but Saints QB Drew Brees was the first pick of the second round of the 2001 NFL Draft by the San Diego Chargers. The other quarterbacks without first-round pedigree are the Patriots Tom Brady (6th Rdin 2000) and Texans TJ Yates (5th Rdin 2011)
• You need to have a Top 25 Offense or Defense – Per the Elias Sports Bureau, no NFL team has ever made it to the Super Bowl (Since 1966) with an offense or defense ranked outside of the top 25 in total yards. So let’s review the rankings for the teams left: Packers (3rd Offensively, 32nd Defensively), Niners (26th Offensively, 4th Defensively), Saints (1st Offensively, 24th Defensively), Giants (8th Offensively, 27th Defensively); Patriots (2nd Offensively, 31st Defensively), Ravens (15th Offensively, 3rd Defensively), Texans (13th Offensively, 2nd Defensively), Denver (23rd Offensively, 20th Defensively) – This is good news for (DEN,BAL, HOU, and NO)
• Points Way Up — A record 11,356 points were scored in the 2011 NFL Season, with games averaging 44.4 points, which was the highest average in 46 seasons (46.1 ppg in 1965). New Orleans(547) andGreen Bay(560) also joined the prestigious 500+ point club this season. Here is a ranking breakdown by team in terms of points: Packers (1st Offensively, 19th Defensively), Niners (11th Offensively, 2nd Defensively), Saints (2nd Offensively, 13th Defensively), Giants (9th Offensively, 25th Defensively); Patriots (3rd Offensively, 15th Defensively), Ravens (12th Offensively, 3rd Defensively), Texans (10th Offensively, 4th Defensively), Denver (25th Offensively, 24th Defensively)
• The G-Men know the playoffs — With their Week 17 win over the Dallas Cowboys (31-14), the Giants clinched their NFL record 31st playoff appearance – broke a tie with the Cowboys (30). After beating the Falcons in the Wildcard Round, the G-Men will be looking to take another step toward another NFL Championship (7) by beating the Green Bay Packers.
• Super Bowl MVP’s Everywhere – For the first time ever in the NFL Divisional Round history, there will be four former Super Bowl MVP Quarterbacks playing (Packers Aaron Rodgers, Patriots Tom Brady, NY Giants Eli Manning, and Saints Drew Brees). Plus you cannot forget about a defensive player too, former MVP, Ravens LB Ray Lewis (Super Bowl XXXV)
• The Year of the Tight End Continued – With teams playing more zone defenses and quarterbacks looking for “good” match-ups in the redzone, tight ends are more in vogue than ever in the NFL. Some tight ends that will be showcased in the divisional round are Saints Jimmy Graham, Niners Vernon Davis, Texans Owen Daniels, Ravens Ed Dickson, Packers Jermichael Finley, Broncos Daniel Fells, and certainly last but not least Patriots emerging 2nd year stars Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Last week Graham was one of the biggest stars of the Wildcard round producing 7 catches for 55 yards ( 7.85 ypc) and 1 TD in the Saints 45-28 win over the Lions
• Brush-up on the NFL’s new Overtime Rules again – It is important after the Broncos dramatic overtime win last week that everyone knows the new rules that govern the league’s extra session. Now a game cannot be won on the 1st drive of overtime by a field goal. In this scenario, the other team would now get a chance to match with a field goal — game would revert to sudden death — or score a touchdown for the win. But as always, if a team wins the coin toss and scores a touchdown on the opening drive, then the game would be over. The new system does not guarantee each team a possession (see Thomas’ touchdown versusPittsburgh). What it does guarantee, is the “opportunity for possession” for the second team, if the first team scores a field goal. Also remember there are some other crazy factors – that you know will come into play this postseason – to consider. If a team kicks an onside kick and recovers the ball or gets the ball on a muff that would be considered a “possession” and a field goal could win it.
• Belichick trying to climb the postseason wins board — New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has compiled a 15-6 (.714) record in his postseason career. Belichick ranks fifth all-time with 15 playoff victories, trailing only Pro Football Hall of Famers Tom Landry, Don Shula, Joe Gibbs, and Chuck Noll.
2011 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Games
Saturday, Jan. 14
3) Saints (13-4) vs. 2) 49ers (13-3), 4:30 PM ET (FOX — Johnston, Albert, and Siragusa)
A stark contrast of two red-hot teams that met last back in Week 1 of the Preseason. This will be the first playoff game between an offense that averaged at least 34 points per game (Saints) and a defense that allowed fewer than 15 points per game (Niners) both in the regular season in over 60 years. The last time this occurred was in the 1950 NFL Championship, when the Rams (38.8PPG) lost to the Browns (12.0PPGallowed) by a score of 30-28. Look for the high-flying Saints to try and make this a track meet game. Record-setting quarterback Drew Brees will want to get the ball to his many weapons including RB Darren Sproles, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham and others. While the Niners will surely take the slow and steady approach fueled by their stout defense, led by linebackers Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman, and their physical running game (RB Frank Gore was over 1,000 yards again).
LV’s Pick: This will be a tough assignment for the Saints as they will be playing on grass and outside of their beloved Superdome. But when I look at these two teams, you have to start with the head coaches and quarterbacks. Though Niners rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh is the talk of the NFL after leading San Francisco back to the playoffs, right now he cannot not match the resume of former Super Bowl winner Sean Payton. And the quarterback position is even more lopsided. Brees is playing at an MVP level while Alex Smith is a game manager who is just trying to not make mistakes. Watch for turnovers and big plays in this one. So in that regard, you have to favor New Orleans. Saints over Niners, 27-17
4) Broncos (9-8) vs. 1) Patriots (13-3), 8:00 PM ET (CBS — Nance/Simms)
Saturday’s nightcap will pitAmerica’s new sweetheart quarterback versus its old one. After the Broncos pulled out a miraculous thrilling overtime win over the Steelers in the Wildcard Round, Tebow mania went into overdrive. However you cannot discount thatDenverwill be facing one of the most successful Quarterback / Head coach combinations in league history in Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The No. 1 seeded Patriots are searching for their first playoff win since the 2007AFCChampionship Game and they will need to be more balanced to have a chance. Too often this season, the Patriots were content outscoring teams, but in the playoffs physicality, avoiding turnovers, and making first downs are paramount. Logic would say that in almost any game between these two, thatNew Englandwould be able to stop the Broncos sometimes struggling offense on defense and spread the field out enough to bomb away when they have the ball. But this is a new Broncos team that now wants revenge (lost badly in Week 15) and more respect. Of course there is the Tebow factor too that is converting a lot of people around the NFL. The key will be the Patriots ability to produce turnovers as in their previous game, the Broncos turned the ball over 3 times with all of them leading to points. After losing at home in the playoffs the last two years, look forNew Englandto finally get back on the winning side of the ledger.
LV’s Pick: Brady and Belichick are just too good to continue losing in the playoffs, especially at Foxboro in front of their raucous crowd. Watch for Brady making big plays to his amazing tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, as I am unsure about the Broncos Back two and their LB’s ability to cover. Don’t automatically count out Tebow as he should play closer to his Wildcard form than the guy that struggled the last 3 games of the regular season. In the end, I believe the Broncos’ Super Bowl was last week in their win over Pittsburgh and I just can’t see them pulling off another miracle, especially on the road. Patriots over Broncos, 31-23
Sunday, Jan. 15
3) Texans (11-6) vs. 2) Ravens (12-4), 1:00 PM ET (CBS — Gumbel and Dierdorf)
This is a great match-up of two tough physical teams who like to run the ball down your throat and play attacking defense. The Texans seem to be on a roll after not just making the playoffs, but also getting a win in the Wildcard Round over the Bengals. But the only thing that the Bengals and Ravens have in common is that they both play in theAFCNorth. Baltimoreis tough veteran-laden team, who know how to win in the playoffs. Though the Ravens are usually road warriors in the playoffs, this time their regular season helped them secure homefield advantage. Watch for veterans LB Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed trying to make rookie QB TJ Yates feel real uncomfortable in a sure to be hostile stadium. ButBaltimorefirst and foremost must stop running backs Arian Foster and Ben Tate as they setup deep play-action passes to speedster WR Andre Johnson. Yates has the arm to get the ball deep, but the Ravens must ensure that he does not have the time to hurt them. Unfortunately for the youngster quarterback, he cannot go ask Ravens QB Joe Flacco how to beat his team. For the past four seasons, Flacco has been in the playoffs and now he should be ready to make an impact. If Joe Cool is smart, the first order of business should be to get the ball to dual-threat back Ray Rice. The little sparkplug makesBaltimore’s offense go as he is their leading rusher and receiver. Look for the Texans to use LB’s DeMeco Ryan and Brian Cushing in trying to shutdown Rice. Also Flacco must protect the ball the same way that he did in the Ravens’ Week 6 win overHouston.
LV’s Pick: Plain-and-Simple, I just can’t see rookie QB TJ Yates beating the veteran Ravens in Baltimore. I know that the Ravens are getting old and have some players out (Boldin, knee) but this the playoffs and that is when Lewis and Company come to play. I know upstart head coach John Harbaugh will have his troops ready. Ravens over Texans 24-20
4) NY Giants (10-7) vs. 1) Packers (15-1),4:30 PM ET(FOX–Buck/Aikman/Oliver)
The most anticipated game to me has to be Packers and Giants in a rematch of their “Instant Classic” 2007 NFC Championship Game, won by the Giants. The 2011 season has been a magical ride for the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers, but recently their have been some dents in their armor. The Packers lost in Week 15 to the Chiefs and then they chose to rest several of their players in Week 17, before their bye week. So you are talking about 2 to 3 Weeks of sitting around for some of the Packers. While the red-hot Giants (winners of their last 3 games) had to fight their way into the playoffs week by week. The weather should be cold, so I think despite the presence of two big time quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, that the team that can control the line of scrimmage and run the football will win this one. Rodgers has almost as many weapons as Brees, but he needs time and the Packers O-line is very beat-up going into this one. Also the Packers running game has been almost non-existent this season, so G-Men should be able to concentrate on rushing the passer. The key player for the Giants will be DE Jason Pierre-Paul as the young pass rusher maybe able to “out-quick” veteran LT Chad Clifton. Pierre-Paul will surely be aided by DC Perry Fewell’s other speed rushers Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora. On offense to help Eli Manning continue looking likePeyton Manning,New Yorkwill need to have another solid running day from Jacobs and Bradshaw. If Manning is given time and can you play-action, the Packers secondary can be exploited by Giants’ speedy receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham. I think more than any game, turnovers will be the biggest key in this one as the Giants had some crucial interceptions and fumbles in their close Week 13 loss.
LV’s Pick: This one is a tough one, but you have to like what you have seen from the NY Giants in recent weeks and the reoccurring trend of lower seeded teams making an impact in the playoffs. With a record of 9-7, the Giants are not expected to win at Lambeau against the big-bad Packers (15-1). However the Giants have enough veteran from their 2007 squad to understand that record don’t mean squat in the postseason. I see the G-Men turning this game “ugly” by pounding the rock and getting pressure on Rodgers. Just like last time, I believe it will come down to a field goal. However this time it will be Eli and not Rodgers leading the Giants into field goal range for the game-winner. Don’t get up too much during this one as it should be close. NY Giants over Packers, 24-23
Lloyd Vance is the Editor for Taking It to the House , who is also an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). He is also a contributor for the Sports Journey Broadcast Network. Lloyd can be reached on Twitter @lloydvance_nfl