I defy the New Orleans Saints’ scouts to tell their bosses who they should be game-planning for this Sunday as they consider the Washington Redskins’ stable of running backs. Recently one of Washington’s backfield ball-carriers eluded the fact that, although he was listed as the starter on the team’s depth chart, he’d believe it when he saw it (paraphrased).
“I think they’re going to keep us pretty much in the dark until probably the day before the game,” second-year Penn State graduate Evan Royster said this week.
Anyone who has been watching the Redskins head coach, Mike Shanahan, over the past two-and-a-half years should not be surprised by this. Since his arrival here, the senior Shanahan has surprised fans and media by starting a different player in any given game than was previously announced.
Here’s a factoid: in 2008, Shanahan started seven different running backs over the course of the season for the Denver Broncos.
I can recall seeing depth charts last season and thinking, “Right.”
In September of last year, running back Ryan Torain had recovered from an injury that kept him out of most of training camp. He played in the final preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and finished with 73 yards on 17 rushes, running all over the defense and looking like he’d completely shaken off any accumulated rust. But newly acquired running back Tim Hightower started against the New York Giants in Week One (and ran for 72 yards on 25 carries).
Hightower was considered the starter for the early part of the season although other backs got on the field. Then-rookie Roy Helu, Jr. saw time against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, running for 74 yards on 10 carries to Hightower’s 96 yards on 20 carries. I would consider that sharing the load. The two backs also played in the Dallas victory. In Week 4 against the Rams, three backs shared the duty although Torain got the bulk of it (it came to light later that Hightower had injured his shoulder). Torain was a beast while on the field in that game, carrying the ball 19 times for 135 yards and a touchdown. I had to wonder if he didn’t practice well in the following weeks because he did not remain the starter even after such a good game and the injury to Hightower.
Actually, Tim remained the starter until he tore his ACL during the third quarter of the Week Seven game against the Carolina Panthers, having carried much of the load up until then. He was put on Injured Reserve and ended the 2011 season with 321 rushing yards and a touchdown on 84 carries.
The team was in some turmoil during that time – what with the benching of then-starting-quarterback Rex Grossman for back-up John Beck – and the running game faltered like the team did for several games.
Against the Buffalo Bills the Redskins gained only 24 yards rushing between Beck (10 yards and running for his life) and Torain (14).
Against the San Francisco 49ers, there was 52 total rushing yards between Beck (9), Helu (41) and Torain (2).
Against the Miami Dolphins, they logged 61 yards rushing between Helu (41) and Torain (20). Grossman was back at the helm and didn’t need to run for his life as much as Beck had (he got the ball out of his hands more quickly) so he had no rushing yards.
Against the Dallas Cowboys, we saw the most pronounced form of “running-back-by-committee” as the team gained 60 yards rushing between Helu (35), Grossman (10), Torain (4), the briefly acquired Tashard Choice (7) and wide receiver Anthony Armstrong, who picked up five yards rushing on an end around to the left.
It wasn’t until Week 12 that Shanahan seemed to acknowledge that he had two healthy, young backs capable of producing. Helu ran for 108 yards against the Seattle Seahawks, 100 yards against the New York Jets and 126 yards against the New England Patriots (although Evan Royster was also on the field in that game and gained 44 yards).
In the second victory over the New York Giants, Shanahan again split up the duties and Helu ran for 53 yards while Royster gained 36 yards and fullback Darrel Young rushed for 14. Royster must have been the “hot hand” in practice because he got the call then and rushed for 132 yards against the Minnesota Vikings in the next to last game of the season while Torain spelled him for 4 rushes and 8 yards. Royster started the final game against the Eagles and logged 113 yards. Helu was up for 4 carries for 5 yards and Young carried once for 12 yards.
This is a lot of stats, I realize. But the point is – and we all know it – that it’s easy to understand why Royster can be told he’s starting Sunday and still not start. It’s likely going to depend on who’s had the best practices and is the most healthy leading up to kick-off.
With Alfred Morris now in the barn and Robert Griffin, III a rushing threat as well, the Saints are going to have their hands full game-planning for the rushing attack by Washington. They can plan for the scheme. But the Redskins have very good backs on the team that bring different skills and tendencies to the field.
I’m sure the situation can be frustrating for the players. Sometimes they know who’s slated to start before kick-off. But to be told you’re going to start, then get out there and not produce immediately and so be pulled probably wreaks havoc with the player’s psyches.
Consider this: how many times have you heard a guy say, “The more I get the ball, the more into a rhythm I get?” The idea that if you continue to hand that pigskin off to the same guy, the better he’ll get means that not giving a guy the ball over and over again keeps him from getting better.
There is research however, that indicates that the “Hot Hand” theory of basketball (where a player is more likely to make a shot after making one previously and so the more he shoots the better statistics he’ll have) doesn’t necessarily apply to football where, the more a player gets handed the ball, the better rhythm he’ll get into and the better he will play.
If, on the other hand, those players know more than the “research” indicates and the “hot hand” theory does apply to football, then having a running game “by committee” is a flawed practice and one can see why the 2008 season for Shanahan in Denver was less than completely successful (the team ended with an 8-8 record) and why perhaps the Redskins are struggling.
This is Shanahan however (so far), and this is how he works. It will be interesting to see how the head coach handles the running game this Sunday and how the Saints’ defense handles the Redskins’ ‘secret weapon.’ New Orleans will have previously-suspended defensive end Will Smith back and RedskinsNation should hope he’s rusty. Hopefully, the running backs on the team will be happy no matter who’s on the field as long as they get the win.
Hail.