For the New York Giants, it’s win or you’re out.
Once holding a tight grip on the NFC East, the defending Super Bowl champions have lost four of their last six games and with them, the division lead. The NFC East crown is now a long shot rather than a certainty in New York, and a playoff berth likely hinges on the Giants winning their remaining two regular season games.
Enter a perfectly-placed road battle with another of the NFL’s sputtering elite teams — the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens are phenomenal when playing at home inside M&T Bank Stadium. But the Giants have been touted as one of the top road teams for head coach Tom Coughlin’s entire tenure. Both teams are playing with their backs against the wall, and what was once a sure thing for the two teams weeks ago — the AFC North title for Baltimore and a playoff appearance for the Giants — is quickly slipping from their grasps.
The rest of the 2012 NFL season for both of these teams will likely go however this game goes. Here’s a look at what the Giants must do to ensure that theirs goes well:
1. Run the football.
The Giants have had inconsistent results running the football this season, in part because of inconsistent play-calling. But the Ravens feature a surprisingly dismal run defense that ranks 26th in yards and has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns.
With running back Ahmad Bradshaw likely returning to the lineup, the Giants will feature a fresh one-two punch that includes Bradshaw and electric rookie David Wilson. Wilson ran well against a weak Falcons’ run defense last week, but saw limited carries after New York fell too far behind in their embarrassing 34-0 shutout loss to Atlanta.
New York has gotten away from its run-first scheme and as a result, opposing defenses have keyed in on quarterback Eli Manning’s passes. In order for the Giants to be victorious in Baltimore, it would be wise of them to establish the run early to open up the pass and provide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks with an opportunity to make some big plays.
2. Take away, DON’T give away!
The Giants have flourished when they have won the turnover battle, ranking third in the NFL in interceptions and fourth in turnover ratio at plus-13.
They have forced at least one turnover in 42 of their last 46 games (including the playoffs). In games where the Giants do not record a takeaway they are 1-3.
The Ravens have been rather careful with the football this season, turning it over just 15 times (third in the NFL). Despite Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco’s success in avoiding costly mistakes for most of the season — just 10 interceptions in 2012 — he has passed to opposing defenses in each of the last three games. All three games resulted in losses for Baltimore.
New York’s loss to the Falcons last week was a direct result of giveaways, namely two interceptions by Manning. The Giants’ elite quarterback has been less careful with the football recently, throwing seven in the last six games.
The Giants must succeed in the turnover battle. Against the Ravens, that will not be an easy task, but they do have a key component on defense that can provide them with numerous opportunities…
3. Pressure Joe Flacco
Once a vaunted pass-rushing unit, the Giants’ defense has been underwhelming this season. To date, they have recorded just 32 sacks (16th in the NFL) and have generated minimal pressure. Despite this, the Giants have the talent required to get after a quarterback and force him to play on his heels. When a quarterback is on his heels — hurrying throws and misreading defenses — you get turnovers.
Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora have been mostly nonexistent this season, under-performing and providing the Giants with little in terms of quarterback pressure. These two, along with fellow defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and the rest of the Giants’ defense, must do all they can to keep Flacco under pressure all afternoon.
When Flacco has time to sit in the pocket and make his throws, he’s close in comparison to the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. This could not be evidenced more than by his league-leading 11 “deep ball” touchdowns. However, he wilts under pressure, unable to make easy passes. Among NFL quarterbacks, the former Blue Hen is ranked 22nd, completing just 43.2 percent of his pass attempts when there is pressure in his face.
It couldn’t hurt the Giants to employ some more blitzes than usual in this matchup, utilizing whatever resources they have to keep Flacco’s day hectic.
New York has relied heavily on its defensive linemen to generate pressure but has failed miserably. Knowing how unsuccessful Flacco is with defenders in his face, Giants’ defensive coordinator Perry Fewell should tweak his usual game plan to ensure pressure is consistent.
Prediction
Many will claim that the Giants “play better with their backs against the wall” while citing past moments when the defending Super Bowl champions overcame all odds to rise to the top. In doing so, they usually ignore certain seasons between 2007 and 2011 which were full of disappointment and poor play — as opposed to improved play — when their season was on the line. To assume that one season has anything to do with the next is foolish.
With that said, it’s foolish to assume the same of the Ravens. In the past, the Ravens have been a perennially dominant and consistent unit that starts well and finishes well. This season’s team, however, is far different than years past. The team is older, battered and struggling. The offense is in shambles and the defense isn’t much better.
Neither team is playing good football right now, but the Giants are playing better. The game will come down to the wire, but with the game on the line, a (Giants’ safety) Stevie Brown interception seals the win for Big Blue.
Giants 27, Ravens 20
Louis Musto is a contributor for the Sports Journey Broadcast Network covering the NFL and NBA. You can follow him on Twitter @LouisMusto.