If you are a fan of the NFL and — more importantly — cheer for a team still in this year’s NFL playoffs, you have hope. Based on some interesting trends and stats that range back seven seasons ago when the Indianapolis Colts won Super Bowl XLI (41), there are three criteria or simple formulas that I will use to determine this year’s Super Bowl Winner.
If you feel that the result indicates that your team has the best chance to win, then by all means subscribe to the theories. If they don’t work for your fandom, then the team that you cheer for probably has no chance anyway!
Of course, we joke here at Sports Journey.
For the record, I have predicted the last two Super Bowl winners before the season even started. This past season, I predicted a repeat Super Bowl match-up between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers with the latter winning it all. At least one of those teams can still keep my streak alive.
So… if you’re up to it, here we go:
Theory One: The San Diego Chargers will win this year’s Super Bowl because the last four Super Bowl winners were the opening home opponent for the Philadelphia Eagles.
This was something that I tweeted way back in August. Everyone thought I was crazy to even think that this streak could continue.
– In 2009 the Eagles opened their home schedule (Week 2) against the New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints would win the game 48-22.
– The 2010 season would see Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers win (Week 1) versus the Eagles in Philadelphia 27-20.
– In 2011, the NFC East Division foe New York Giants would win (Week 3) the home opener at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field, 29-16.
– The 2012 season home opener in Philadelphia would see ultimate Super Bowl MVP quarterback Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens lose 23-24.
Theory Two: No team has ever won the Super Bowl that led the league in regular season passing yards
This statistically based fact means that the high scoring Denver Broncos and their record-setting quarterback, Peyton Manning, would be eliminated from the running and reminds me of Tom Brady and the 2007 New England Patriots. If you recall, after setting that same record, the team lost the Big Game to the New York Giants.
Sorry if you’re a Broncos fan and believe in superstitions.
Theory Three: Every Super Bowl winner from past 5 seasons has won their game following their bye week.
This equation is another fact over the past 5 seasons. If the team that you cheer for accomplished this feat this year, then good for you.
Wild Card: (this bodes well for those who are confused)
The Philadelphia Eagles have played the past seven Super Bowl winners during the regular season. Those teams are the four previously mentioned in Theory One (from 2009 – 2012) as well as the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2009, the Giants in 2008 and Indianapolis in 2007. The same phenomena holds true for the Washington Redskins who, after another horrible, drama-filled season, have played the eventual Super Bowl winner the past seven consecutive seasons. They have also beaten the past three Super Bowl Winners in previous seasons, i.e. Baltimore, the Giants and Green Bay).
So where does all of this lead? It does make for great conversation and debates. But if you want to go one further and incorporate all of the theories together and use the process of elimination, then this is what you will come up with:
Final Equation:
Theory One Winner (SD) + Theory Two Winner (7 teams: CAR, NO, SF, SEA, INDY, NE or SD) + Theory Three Winner (Four teams: NO, SEA, DEN or INDY) = ??
Now, if we were to use the process of elimination, San Diego, Carolina, San Francisco and New England would all miss the cut because they would not get past Theory Three (they all lost the games following their bye weeks). This would leave us with Indianapolis, New Orleans and Seattle. Since we are left with three, we have to throw in Wild Card of Philadelphia having played the last seven Super Bowl winners on their schedule for seven consecutive seasons. Of the last three potential Super Bowl winning teams left, New Orleans is the only one that the Eagles have played this season. Now we have to decide… do we really want to count that game in our Wild Card? It was a playoff game and all of the others were scheduled regular season games for the Eagles.
So, in not abandoning all of my theories and entering my Wild Card (hey, we needed a lifeline here), we come up with two teams who are back from the dead: Denver — who would break the curse of Theory Two) and San Diego — who would continue the streaks of Theories One, Two and our Wild Card.
But the bottom line now is that we need an ultimate winner.
Based on all of the above, Philadelphia, and now Washington, will be the final indicators — albeit not in pads — of who will win Super Bowl XLVIII aka the Winter Bowl.
Calculations using the theories name San Diego the winner. Theory One is covered — they played Philadelphia to open the Eagles home schedule this year; Theory Two is covered — they did NOT lead the league in passing; and the Wild Card is taken into account — the played Philadelphia and Washington and also lost to Washington who, as mentioned, has beaten the past three champions in the regular season.
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Although there was a tremendous amount of work put into this, I would not take the results to your favorite gambling site. But do talk it over with your friends who might still have a team in this year’s playoffs.
If the theories are correct, however, and the San Diego Chargers win it all, I am happy to make payment arrangements with you for my royalties.
Good luck because that is what is needed if you believe in this.