It used to be that when a perennially bad team visited any other, it was seen as an automatic win for the home ball club. Not so for the Washington Redskins. Fans have become discouraged by the “visit the Redskins and get well” stigma that has plagued their team for the last decade and rightly so. Teams like the 2009 Detroit Lions (who had not won in 18 games when they hosted the Redskins) beat the Burgundy and Gold 19-14. Washington was one of two teams Detroit beat that year. The other was the Cleveland Browns. Then there is the curse of the rookie quarterbacks. Recall when Carolina Panthers rookie QB Cam Newton had his way with the Redskins 2011 defense the year he was drafted in the first round?
Last year, the eventual 2-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Washington 27-7 in Week 11. They came into FedEx Field with a 1-8 record and, like the 2009 Lions, went away with one of their two wins on the season. It was an ugly game wherein then-starting quarterback Robert Griffin, III was sacked six times and threw two interceptions. Washington also fumbled the ball four times and the only touchdown was made by running back Roy Helu, Jr. who is no longer with the team. Beast wide out Pierre Garçon caught just one pass for six yards and soon-to-be-elite tight end Jordan Reed had two for 22. Deep threat DeSean Jackson had four catches for 35 yards.
It was a debacle that is best forgotten.
The Bucs are coming to Washington again tomorrow currently standing at 2-3 and, like the New York Jets last week before the Redskins played them, are coming off their bye.
Redskins Head Coach Jay Gruden has labeled this game “Code Red” and many feel it is. While it is unlikely Gruden — or even quarterback Kirk Cousins — will lose their jobs immediately were this to end up a loss, the team needs a win Sunday so they don’t have to go into their bye on a three-game losing streak. Tampa Bay has some impressive defensive records and is ranked fifth in the NFL in yards allowed and fourth in passing yards allowed. Overall the Bucs’ defense is ranked 15th by Football Outsiders.
With all of that said, a lot of focus has been put on how good the Tampa Bay defense is but maybe it’s not going to be as tough for the Redskins offense as it may seem. Let’s take a look at what Cousins and his teammates will be facing this week in the Bucs defense and decide for ourselves.
First, the personnel:
Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy’s 4.5 sacks tie for him for fifth in the NFL this season. He has five career multi-sack games and 31.5 career sacks. Pro Football Focus gives McCoy the fifth-best pass-rushing grade amongst those in his position. Last season he was ranked as PFF’s second-highest-rated DT, despite missing three games and the majority of two others with injuries. His 45 total pressures were the fourth-most by a DT in the NFL in 2014.
McCoy had 8.5 sacks last season, tied for third-most by a defensive tackle in the NFL. He was voted Defensive Player of the Week in this year’s Week 5 game against Jacksonville where he had 1.5 sacks and three tackles in that win.
Putting pressure on passers has helped the team’s sack totals and its 15 sacks are tied for eighth most in NFL. The Bucs’ three sacks per game are tied for fifth most in NFL. Up front with McCoy is also DE Jaquies Smith. Smith was Defensive Player of the Week after Tampa Bay’s Week 2 win over the New Orleans Saints. In that game he had three sacks and two forced fumbles. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he recovered a fumble forced by teammate and DE Gaines Adams. As well, this pass rush group has DT Henry Melton, a 2012 Pro Bowler, ranked eighth last season in quarterback pressures. He came to Tampa Bay from the Dallas Cowboys although he was with the Chicago Bears before that.
The linebacking corps of the Bucs is nothing to sneeze at. Bruce Carter, Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are talented and will mean guys like Jordan Reed will have to be in top form.
David has 11 career sacks since he was drafted in 2012 (he needs just three more to pass predecessor Derrick Brooks who had 13.5 from 1995-2008 – 14 years)… that is the third-most by a linebacker in franchise history. So far David also has six career interceptions.
Fellow LB Bruce Carter, like Melton, also came from the Dallas Cowboys. In four years he has logged 235 tackles, 14 passes defensed, five INTs, three sacks and seven special teams’ tackles. In 2014, he led the Cowboys in INTs with five, the most by an LB in the NFL and the third-highest total in the league.
Rookie MLB Kwon Alexander, who the Bucs acquired in this year’s draft by trading a seventh-round pick to move up four spots in the fourth round, was the Pepsi Rookie of the Week after the Week 3 Houston Texans loss…He has 10 tackles so far (one for a loss), two passes defensed and one INT. To have earned the middle linebacker starting spot as a rookie is something.
Tampa Bay’s secondary is made up of cornerbacks Alterraun Verner and Johnthan Banks; and safeties Major Wright and Bradley McDougald. These guys have not lit the defensive world up this season but that doesn’t mean they won’t start Sunday. Between them they have three passes defended, one INT and 38 tackles in five games.
The Bucs defensive coordinator is Leslie Frazer who is less than happy with his secondary. There have been grumblings about him changing his starters but that remains to be seen. He is especially unhappy about the tackling and this is a place guys like Reed and Garçon — the latter being SO good getting yards after the catch — can exploit Tampa Bay.
Even with their base Tampa 2 defense, the Bucs will likely stack the box to try and stop the Redskins’ running game. Gruden will have to use some play-action to both help the run and open up some passing room for Reed and even speedy receiver Rashad Ross (in the absence of Jackson), regardless of whether or not the passes are caught just to keep McCoy & Co. on their heels a bit. With RB Chris Thompson out this week with a back injury, Gruden has said he could use rookie RB Matt Jones in that third-down role. Gruden also mentioned the possibility that fullback Darrel Young might take on a heavier load. The way the run game has been going, Gruden would be smart to put Young back in the rotation as the great lead-blocker he has been for Morris over his tenure here.
Redskins’ offensive coordinator Sean McVay knows something has got to put the rushing game back on track.
“You know there’s a story on each play,” he said Friday. “A lot of it comes down to execution. Clearly we know as coaches and players we’ve got to do a better job collectively executing whether it’s a back-side combination, front-side combination or [running] back reading it out. You know there are some things that give credit to the defense as they’ve done a nice job loading the box and stopping us. But we feel like if we correct some of the issues that have shown up especially these last couple of weeks. We’ll be capable of running the football like we’ve shown in glimpses earlier in the year.”
Despite their rankings, Tampa Bay has allowed 109 first downs this year which is 25th in the NFL. Their offense turns over the ball a lot so opposing teams are taking over with great field position and don’t have to drive that far to score.
The Tampa Bay defense is currently ranked 31st in the league in Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage and has allowed touchdowns on 14 of 19 opposing teams’ red zone possessions. Only the Tennessee Titans are worse right now (Washington ranks 10th). This is a good indication of how the Bucs have allowed teams to beat them… not through big plays, but by consistently allowing opponents to rack up short ones. That could be useful for the Redskins with Cousins as good as he is in the short passing game.
Again, despite the Bucs impressive defensive rankings, one has to look at the teams they’ve played and the outcome of each. They’ve played the Titans (Record: 1-4, TB lost 42-14), the New Orleans Saints (Record: 2-4, TB won 26-19), the Houston Texans (Record: 2-4, TB lost 19-9), the Panthers (Record: 5-0, TB lost 37-23) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (Record: 1-5, TB won 38-31). This is not exactly a powerhouse of teams — other than the Panthers.
Still, the Buccaneers are an NFL team and cannot be taken for granted. Especially with the Redskins’ history against both bad teams and rookie quarterbacks. The fact that Tampa Bay is coming off their bye week means the team is healthier as well. Their defensive injury list as of Friday was:
LB Bruce Carter – Thigh – DNP – Questionable
DT Gerald McCoy – Shoulder – Limited – Probable
DT Tony McDaniel – Groin – Limited – Out
CB Johnthan Banks Knee Full – Probable
S Chris Conte – Ankle – Full – Probable
DE George Johnson – Ribs – Full – Probable
This Bucs game is a winnable one for the Redskins, as have been several that they’ve played this year. The team must convert on third down so it’s a huge plus that Reed (concussion) is expected to be on the field. Fortunately as well, left tackle Trent Williams (also a concussion) should be able to play and that’s a major coup for Cousins. They must get the running game going and the Michigan State product must limit the mistakes. And even more than all of that, the Redskins must come out after the half fired up and ready to go.
Tampa Bay has good defensive stats so far but honestly, the unit is just not as good as the stats make it out to be.