Going by the NFL’s fiscal year calendar, the Terry McLaurin Contract Extension Soap Opera has now entered its sixth month. No one expected to be here. McLaurin is the consummate professional who has done as much off the field for the organization as he has on it, and Adam Peters is a smart general manager who knows the value of the team’s second-best player. And yet, here we are, with less than three weeks to go before the opening of the 2025 season with what looks like a standoff between two sides who are apparently dug in on their position.
McLaurin reportedly wants about 33 million dollars a year, while the Commanders are (again) reportedly offering between 27 and 28 million dollars. Neither side has moved much from its position. So where do things go from here? There are a few possibilities, from everyone making up immediately to Tony Montana grabbing a grenade launcher and screaming, “Say Hello to my little friend!” (Spoiler alert: it didn’t work out well for Tony).
DEFCON 5 (the best): McLaurin shows up at practice in the next 48 hours with a new deal, and both sides are somewhat happy.
Logic would indicate that a number that would qualify would be 30 million dollars a year, with 60 million guaranteed. That could happen in a number of ways, with money being added onto this year’s contract (McLaurin is scheduled to make about 15 million in cash with 25 million counted against the salary cap, then have the rest spread out over the next two or three years.
The chattering class around the league is puzzled by why this hasn’t happened yet. The only answer seems to be Peters and his staff are convinced a big drop in production is coming after McLaurin celebrates his 30th birthday later this year. Getting on the practice field this week would give McLaurin as many as ten practices to ramp up and be ready to go for the regular season. As good as he has been in his career, the chances he would suffer any ill effects of an off-season holdout/hold-in are slim.
DEFCON 4: McLaurin shows up with a new deal at the end of next week that both sides are somewhat happy with.
As the first option seems less and less likely with each passing hour, this could be the best scenario. Both head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury seem to be getting tired of answering questions about whether their best receiver will be at practice daily. The offense has missed his presence.
While the starters scored on the only possession it played against Cincinnati, quarterback Jayden Daniels had to put himself in harms way, scrambling for a 14-yard touchdown. With Noah Brown still recovering from off season foot surgery, the receiver’s room has relied on Deebo Samuel (not a true number one receiver, although dangerous,) and a combination of rookies, free agents, and veterans who have failed to produce consistently. The more practice time the offense can get with McLaurin, the better chance to hit the ground running or throwing.
DEFCON 3: Terry ends his holdout, plays on his current deal, and tables contract talks until the off season.
In this scenario, the team wins the battle but might lose the war. While the front office has no obligation to renegotiate a valid contract and can use the franchise tag on McLaurin next year, it may have to give him an assurance it won’t tag him to get Terry on the field.
It’s a risky move for the player as McLaurin is betting on himself to have another 1,000-yard season. If he’s tagged next year, his salary would climb to about 28 million dollars, but Washington may have to use it on a few other players depending on how this season plays out. Among them are offensive tackle Laremey Tunsil, Marshon Lattimore, and possibly even Frankie Luvu. Then, of course, there is the non-negotiable negotiation that is three years down the road; Jayden Daniels and the mega contract he will sign.
DEFCON 2:
Terry stands on principle and holds out for 1-2 weeks to start the season.
This would be costly for McLaurin as he would lose game checks of more than 800
thousand dollars per week. He could also be subjected to fines if the team wants to escalate things further. This would be a dangerous risk-reward situation.
If the Commanders start out 0-2 or even 1-1, but demonstrate an offensive output that just isn’t sustainable for a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, it could back Peters into a corner. Championship windows don’t come around every day. Would he be willing to sacrifice a chance for a championship because of his belief in analytics?
There is a precedent to this. Emmitt Smith held out to begin the 1993 season. Smith wanted to be paid like a quarterback, but instead wound up taking a deal that made him the highest-paid running back in the league at the time. Of course, that was under a different collective bargaining agreement, and times have changed, but a slow offensive start would put tremendous pressure on the team to make a deal. On the other hand, if Daniels is the ultimate eraser, the player who can cover up any flaw on the roster, then the Commanders could stand firm with their offer.
DEFCON 1: Terry goes full Tony Montana (metaphorically).
This would be the last card McLaurin could play, and it’s a scenario where both sides lose. League rules say a player must be eligible to play in at least six games to have his contract accrued for the following year. If Terry sat out the entire season, he would be right back where he started, and a year older, which of course is the problem he has now. A prolonged holdout might force the team to go into the weeds with the CBA to see if here any other penalties they can hand down, but again, that would be scorched earth, and it does not seem as if either side wants that.
The feeling around the league is still that a deal gets done before the season, but that has been the feeling for months.
Bob Matthews is a 33 year veteran broadcast journalist, spending the last 29 years of his career in Virginia. Bob has covered both news and sports stories and for the last three seasons, the Washington Commanders. He looks forward to continuing to provide coverage to Sportsjourney.com both on the website and through his podcast, The Bob Matthews Show.
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